India waits for the new US President to announce policies
Trump era, the new protectionist……are some of the phrases being bandied around in the media since the 45th US President took oath of office. It sounds as if things had changed overnight on the diplomatic front. Some newspapers have gone so far as to announce that the whole of Asia condemns the new US president and a diplomatic tsunami is imminent. Trump’s statement about bringing extremist Islam to an end has already rocked Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.
Some diplomacy analysts had hoped for more (according to them) ‘politically correct’ statements from Trump but his inaugural address has made it clear that he is going to stick with the campaign promises made to his voters. The address was aimed at the American blue collared working class which propelled him into the White House. Time and again, President Trump has said that he is not a traditional or professional politician, that he has his own worldview and concept of America and is unapologetic about it. His ‘America First’ line touches a deep chord within the rural belt and generally, nobody could possibly find fault with it as a creed because doesn’t everyone swear by nationalism and national identity these days?
After the disintegration of the erstwhile USSR, the Americans had come to believe that the US was invincible in the now unipolar world. Trump’s inaugural address has made it clear to the world community that the US has plenty of internal issues of its own and the American voters wish their President to address them before he tackles the problems of the world.
Yet, the fact is, that despite several problems plaguing it, the US is the largest economy and the biggest military power in the world; and several countries all over the world are dependent on their trade relations with the US. ‘America First’ could be a worry for such countries but the question is: when hasn’t the US followed it? The US isn’t exactly known for compromising on its business and trade interests. With an astute businessman Trump at the helm, it just might take a more aggressive stance when it comes to business deals.
Business is essentially profit driven and pursuing profit US businesses shifted their production bases to China and other Asian countries. The low labour costs resulted in high profits for businesses and the American consumer got cheaper products. After the initial euphoria settled, a sizable section of the populace saw the trend as depriving American youth of jobs. Trump agrees with the view. His constituency is threatened by joblessness and homelessness.
Following the age old trend of thriving economies outsourcing labour-intensive processes to lesser economies and concentrating on high technology and specialization themselves, the US has retained leadership in research and specialized jobs. In the age of robotics and artificial intelligence would US businesses really be willing to return to basic, labour-intensive manufacturing and fabrication even for the sake of ‘America First’? That is something only time can tell.
Clearly, Trump needs time to define ‘America First’ and elaborate upon it. In this context, when it comes to India, it is the second biggest trade partner of the US. The Indian IT sector and the Silicon Valley are veritable Siamese twins. The US welcomed Indian software specialists because they were required to maintain US lead in the field. On their part, the Indian software personnel fulfilled the expectations and contributed to American society. Today, several US businesses have Indian CEOs. Raj Shah, a PIO strategic communication expert during Trump’s election campaign who was responsible for revealing Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of her personal email server (a mistake that is supposed to have cost her the presidential election) has been appointed his Deputy Assistant and Research Director. Several other key positions too are being held by PIOs. In fact, Trump just might end up appointing the most number of PIOs to key positions in his administration.
So far, President Trump has not signalled strategic changes that go against India’s interests. PM Modi has expressed his faith in continued co-operation from the Trump administration and taking US-India relations to the next level. NSA Ajit Doval has had detailed discussions with Trump’s core team even before the new president was sworn to office.
A critical angle in US-India relations is Pakistan which has been nurtured by successive US administrations as a necessary evil to maintain the balance of power in South Asia. Of late though, Pakistan has been under the scanner as a nursery for terrorism. President Obama, while extending conditional aid, advised Pakistan to reign in the terrorist groups. Despite Pakistan’s desperate efforts, the US refused to give it the advanced F-16s.
Important in this context is the fact that during his two terms President Obama never once visited Pakistan. Most recently, team Trump rebuffed Pakistan PM Sharif’s envoy Tareeque Fatemi’s efforts to meet with them.
Trump has vowed to end Islamic extremism. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are the two key nurturers and exporters of this brand of extremism which is threatening stability and security in Asia, Africa and Europe so far. The US has also suffered some incidents linked with Islamic fanaticism and expects their incidence to escalate.
Trump is also aware of the unholy nuclear nexus between China, Pakistan and North Korea and its implications within the Asian continent. During the election campaign, while he attacked India on the jobs issue, he also strongly criticized China for its unfair trade practices. His talk with Taiwanese head of state Chen Shui Bian was strongly condemned by China and seen as a threat to its ‘One China’ policy. The Obama administration supported ‘One China’ policy to the very end. China, which is projecting itself as a superpower to reckon with, could escalate its harangue against Trump just to attract the attention of the world community.
Meanwhile, India has decided to wait and watch President Trump’s moves in this direction. In his congratulatory message to the new US President, PM Modi has mentioned “shared values and common interests” as the “strength of the India-USA strategic partnership”. The stance of the media must not be confused with the official stance of the Indian administration or even popular opinion.
